On January 28, 2020, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released budget projections for the 2021–2030 budget window.

• As seen in the figure below, the CBO projects that federal deficits will increase from $1.0 trillion in 2021 to more than $1.7 trillion in 2030 and total $13.1 trillion over the 2021–2030 budget window. In no year is the deficit projected to be less than a trillion dollars.
• In relation to the size of the US economy (measured by gross domestic product), the deficit is estimated to rise from 4.3% in 2021 to 5.4% in 2030, and averages 4.8% over the 2021–2030 budget window.

The rise in the deficit over the 10-year budget window reflects faster projected growth in federal government spending (from $4.8 trillion in 2021 to $7.5 trillion in 2030) over revenue (from $3.8 trillion in 2021 to $5.7 trillion in 2030). Over the next several decades, deficits are projected to continue to increase due primarily to the rise in federal government spending on Social Security, health care, and interest on the government debt.

Relative to the CBO's most recent projections released in August 2019 for the 2020–2029 budget window, the new deficit projections for the 2020–2029 budget window are $160 billion higher. In particular, economic updates reduced deficits by $705 billion, legislative changes increased deficits by $505 billion, and technical updates increased deficits by $360 billion. These changes are primarily due to a lowered interest rate forecast (economic), the Further Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2020 (legislative), and technical revisions to Medicare projections (technical).

Source: Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030, January 28, 2020.

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