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November 2, 2020

What to expect in Washington (November 2)

Election eve. President Trump holds rallies today in North Carolina, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Democratic presidential nominee and former Vice President Joe Biden is campaigning in Pennsylvania and Ohio.

The race is tightening in some states, in some polls. ABC News/Washington Post polls released November 1 showed President Trump leading 50%-48% in Florida and Biden leading 51%-44% in Pennsylvania.

The Washington Post reported October 31, "Polling averages show Biden's advantage in Pennsylvania has shrunk somewhat and now lies between four and seven points. That is slightly larger than Clinton's four years ago, but far from enough for Democrats to feel safe."

The New York Times reported November 1, "Both campaigns see Pennsylvania as increasingly crucial to victory: Mr. Trump now appears more competitive here than in Michigan and Wisconsin, two other key northern states he hopes to win, and Mr. Biden's clearest electoral path to the White House runs through the state. Pennsylvania has more Electoral College votes, 20, than any other traditional battleground except Florida, and Mr. Trump won the state by less than one percentage point in 2016."

President Trump suggested to reporters November 1 the prospect of legal action. "We're going to go in the night of — as soon as that election is over, we're going in with our lawyers. But we don't want to have Pennsylvania, where you have a political governor — a very partisan guy — and we don't want to have other states — like Nevada, where you have the head of the Democratic clubhouse as your governor. We don't want to be in a position where he's allowed to, every day, watch ballots come in."

A Monmouth poll of Pennsylvania released November 2 showed Biden leading President Trump 50%-45% among registered voters.

A Morning Consult poll released November 2 showed Biden leading President Trump 51.5%-45.4% in Florida.

New York Times/Siena polls reported November 1 showed Biden leading President Trump:

- 49%-43 in Arizona

- 47%-44% in Florida

- 49%-43% in Pennsylvania

- 52%-41% in Wisconsin

Biden leads President Trump 52%-42% nationally in a Wall Street Journal/NBC poll reported November 1.

In the Iowa Senate race, a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll of likely voters released October 31 showed Senator Joni Ernst (R-IA) leading 46% to 42% over Democrat Theresa Greenfield.


A New York Times report from the weekend focused on Biden's emphasis on tax in the final days of the campaign: "'Why should a firefighter, an educator, a nurse, a cop, pay at a higher tax rate, which you do, than a major multibillion-dollar corporation?' Mr. Biden asked in Iowa on Friday. 'Why should you pay more taxes than Donald Trump, who paid $750?'"

Join us Friday, November 6 from 12:00-1:00 p.m. ET for a post-election "Tax in the time of COVID-19," webcast. After election day, what might be on the horizon for tax policy, tax legislation and any further economic stimulus? Panelists will provide updates on: (i) elections, US economy and tax policy; (ii) breaking developments; and (iii) what's happening at the IRS. Register.


Contact Information
For additional information concerning this Alert, please contact:
Washington Council Ernst & Young
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   • Gary Gasper (
   • Heather Meade (
   • Kurt Ritterpusch (