07 October 2024 What to expect in Washington (October 7) The election is less than a month away. Both presidential candidates and their delegates are putting a finer point on tax policy as a pocketbook issue to draw distinctions between the campaigns: Republican candidate Former President Donald Trump saying Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris wants to increase taxes, and Harris saying Trump prioritizes cutting taxes for the wealthy. Former President Trump October 5 in Butler, PA: "She costs you $29,000 a family through inflation price hikes. And now she wants a larger tax hike, and she wants to go to the largest tax hike in American history. There's never been a tax hike like what she's proposing. She's going to raise your taxes a minimum of $3,000. She's a big taxer." VP Harris in Detroit, MI October 4: "Donald Trump will give billionaires and the biggest corporations massive tax cuts like he did last time. He will cut Social Security and Medicare and impose what I call a Trump sales tax, a 20% tax, on everyday goods and necessities, which will cost … the average American over $4,000 a year more. And if that weren't enough, he intends to end the Affordable Care Act. And even after he tried to repeal it time and time again when he was president, he still has no plan to replace it. Did you guys see the debate? 'Concepts of a plan.'" On Fox News Sunday October 6, VP candidate Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN) said, "Donald Trump kept his promise. He cut taxes for the wealthiest. She's talking about making sure things like a child tax credit, $6,000 child tax credit, put more money in people's pocket, making sure that we're able to buy those things, whether it's a crib or it's baby formula, get started. And she's simply asking that we can pay for it by asking those at the top to pay their fair share." Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ) said on CNN's State of the Union voters "should consider what this means for their families, for their economics. If you're a senior, reducing the price of prescription drugs is something she worked on as vice president. Out-of-pocket expenses for seniors are going to be $2,000 a year starting on January 1. Donald Trump and his Project 2025, that will go away under a Trump presidency. Also, just the cost of things like housing and childcare and health care, I mean, Trump's plan is tariffs on everything that's brought into this country. It's going to raise costs for American families, $4,000 a year, where Kamala Harris has a plan to reduce costs." The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget is out with new estimates of the campaigns' tax proposals this morning, finding that Vice President Harris's plan would increase the debt by $3.5 trillion through 2035, while Former President Trump's plan would increase the debt by $7.5 trillion. Some corporate tax policies proposed by VP Harris — the New Way Forward to Build American Industrial Strength plan that includes America Forward tax credits for emerging industries — are patterned after the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, the CHIPS and Science Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), using industrial policy to bolster investments in target areas and linked to the treatment of workers. On PBS October 4, Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo partially attributed Friday's strong jobs report to those investments. "When it comes to manufacturing, one of the things the president and the vice president have been very focused on is a strategy of making sure that we build a manufacturing sector here in the United States. One of the key drivers of this job report and job reports over the course of this year has been construction jobs," he said. "And those construction jobs are largely tied to building manufacturing facilities based on three laws the president and vice president have gotten passed, the infrastructure law that was passed on a bipartisan basis, the CHIPS and Science Act, and also the Inflation Reduction Act, all of which are helping to build up manufacturing plants … " Disaster relief — Congressional leaders aren't inclined to bring members back prior to the elections to consider a disaster relief supplemental spending bill, despite President Biden's suggestions that such a move might be necessary. But disaster relief promises to be perhaps the most pressing issue lawmakers face when they are scheduled to return to session November 12, in addition to extending government funding, and the issue is a focus in the presidential race. The October 6 Washington Post said the aftermath of Hurricane Helene is among the unpredictable "October surprise" type factors influencing the election. "Deadly flooding has cut off power and water in large swaths of the Southeast, and storm damage could hamper voting ahead of the election," the story said. On Fox News Sunday October 6, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) said, "at the federal level, this has been a massive failure," and: "We'll be back in session immediately after the election — that's 30 days from now. The thing about these hurricanes and disasters of this magnitude is that it takes a while to calculate the actual damages, and the states are going to need some time to do that. I'm from Louisiana where a hurricane-prone state where we're experts at disaster recovery. We've done this. You don't just sent estimates to the federal government. You send specific needs and requests based upon the actual damages. And that takes some time, especially with storms of this magnitude. So, Congress will do its job." On the election-related implications of the hurricane's aftermath, Politico reported Saturday: "Never before has a natural disaster of this scale hit two swing states so close to a presidential election. In North Carolina and Georgia, there's reason for the Trump campaign to worry, as the counties where a disaster has been declared leaned toward him overall in 2020. But bright-blue Asheville was the urban epicenter of the damage. And serious shifts in the electorate in these regions could make a big impact. Of particular concern is what will happen to damaged voting sites, lost mail ballots and overall voter turnout." In an October 4 letter to congressional leaders on disaster needs, President Biden wrote: "The Small Business Administration's (SBA) disaster loan program will run out of funding in a matter of weeks and well before the Congress is planning to reconvene. I warned the Congress of this potential shortfall even before Hurricane Helene landed on America's shores." The letter said that in addition to communities recovering from Hurricane Helene, other communities are also in urgent need of disaster assistance, including to respond to devastating fires in Maui; tornados in Mississippi, Iowa, and Oklahoma; and the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse in Baltimore, Maryland. In an October 2 letter to congressional leaders, Senators Tim Scott (R-SC) and Thom Tillis (R-NC) wrote: "Although the true level of devastation is still unfolding, it is clear that Congress must act to meet the unmet needs in our states and address the scope and scale of destruction experienced by our constituents. This may even require Congress to come back in October to ensure we have enough time to enact legislation before the end of this calendar year." Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) backed the effort, releasing a statement in support of an appropriations package to provide disaster relief to those impacted by Hurricane Helene, saying, "While the impacted communities are still in the preliminary assessment stages, it is clear the devastation will require Congress to act promptly and significantly to ensure that our fellow Americans get the help they desperately need." Reconciliation — Senator Tom Cotton (R-AK), who is running to become Senate Republican Conference chair in the next Congress, the third-ranking position, said last week that Republicans could incorporate health system changes in a reconciliation bill addressing the end-of-2025 expiring TCJA provisions next year. If Republicans sweep in the elections, they will be able to "make health care more affordable, more tailored and more personalized than the one-size-fits-all option," referring to the Affordable Care Act (ACA), Cotton said, according to NBC News. "We'll have an opportunity next year, when it comes time to extend the Trump tax cuts, to adopt new policies that again will make health care more affordable and more personalized," he said. "Because a lot of health care in this country does go through our tax code." The latest Washington Council EY "DC Dynamics" podcast is "Episode 20: Budget Reconciliation Basics." A WCEY Alert, "Prospects for budget reconciliation in 2025," is available here. With Congress away, What to Expect in Washington is being published less frequently, though WCEY Alerts will be issued as events warrant.
Document ID: 2024-1837 | |||