28 October 2024 What to expect in Washington (October 28) In the closing stretch of the historically close presidential election between Republican candidate Former President Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris, the rollout of tax and other policy proposals has slowed as the candidates make their closing arguments and seek to appeal to the categories of voters each must court to win the presidency through electoral college paths to victory. The Saturday Wall Street Journal described the Democratic imperative amid changes in the political landscape, saying Harris' "strategy to win a contest where polling shows she has stalled counts on locking in more suburban voters like those here outside Milwaukee to offset pockets of weakness in the Democratic coalition. Former President Donald Trump has alienated a sizable share of college-educated suburban voters who help decide presidential elections, accelerating their drift from the Republican Party. Harris needs them to counteract softness in her support among Black and Hispanic men, with a new national WSJ poll showing Trump narrowly leading Harris, 47% to 45%. The country's political fault line was once the cleave between Democratic cities and Republican suburbs. That division now increasingly runs through the suburbs … " The Sunday Washington Post similarly reported that "Harris is counting on record support from college-educated voters to help propel her candidacy across the finish line. The Democratic presidential nominee has designed a central plank of her closing argument — which warns of the dangers of returning Donald Trump to the White House — in large part to appeal to this key group. And she is hoping that her strength among college-educated voters, especially those who are white, will help offset some of the challenges she faces with other parts of the Democratic base … " VP Harris is holding a rally in Washington October 29. The main battleground states remain the "Blue Wall" states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and the Sun Belt states of Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada. (The Blue Wall was the name applied to the 18 states and the District of Columbia that were won by Democrats 1992—2012 before Trump broke through in 2016.) The clearest path to victory for VP Harris is widely considered to be Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, plus a congressional district in Nebraska. As the Post pointed out, if Harris loses Pennsylvania but wins the other Blue Wall states, she will need either North Carolina or Georgia, plus Nevada. Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada plus one Maine congressional district would still leave Trump short, meaning he would still need another state like Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin. Beyond the presidential race, the Blue Wall is showing some cracks (as the WSJ quipped) for Senate candidates. Senator Bob Casey's (D-PA) re-election race has been moved to the toss-up column by the Cook Political report, joining Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) and the open Michigan seat sought by Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI). Democrats were already expected to lose the West Virginia seat being vacated by Joe Manchin (D-MT) and Jon Tester (D-MT) faces an uphill climb in Montana, which had already created the possibility that Republicans could take control of the now-51/49 Senate. The Cook Political report said the competitiveness of the Blue Wall Senate races mirrors that of the close presidential race. Tax — Former President Trump did offer a new tax proposal, during his event at Madison Square Garden Sunday night, for a family tax credit for caregivers who care for a parent or loved one. "It's about time that they were recognized, right?" Trump said. "They add so much to our country and are never spoken of — ever, ever, ever. But they are going to be spoken of now." The proposal was compared to the October 8 "Medicare at Home" plan by VP Harris to expand Medicare to cover the cost of some home care aides. The caregiver credit would come in addition to Trump's other proposals to exempt tip and overtime income and Social Security benefits from tax, make auto loan interest deductible, provide tax relief for expats, and restore the full SALT deduction. Both candidates continue to restate their tax proposals and provide a juxtaposition on tax plans. At a campaign event in State College, Pennsylvania October 26, Former President Trump said: "We're going to take back what is rightfully ours. We're going to bring it back with smart tariffs. Tariffs, taxes, not on you, by the way, the taxes are other countries that have been ripping us off for years, and we did it with the USMCA, but we're going to do things that you won't even believe. These companies are going to be begging to come back, because if they don't come back and open up plants here, they're not going to be selling their product in the United States, okay, they're not going to be selling their product … Starting in January, we will give our companies the lowest taxes, the lowest energy costs, the lowest regulatory burdens and free access to the best and biggest market on the planet." On "The Joe Rogan Experience" October 25, Former President Trump said of the 2017 TCJA, "We had horrible tax policy. I made it great with a much lower tax rate. So, I took it from almost 40% down to 21%. Now, I'm bringing it from 21 down to 15, but only if you make your product in the United States, which is great. People call me, they said, what a great idea. Nobody ever heard of that before." On the bipartisan CHIPS and Science Act approved under President Biden, Trump said, "that chip deal is so bad. We put up billions of dollars for rich companies to come in and borrow the money and build chip companies here, and they're not going to give us the good companies anyway. All you had to do was charge them tariffs. If you would have put a tariff on the chips coming in, you would have been able to — just like the auto companies, no different. More sophisticated, but no different." (He has proposed high tariffs for foreign automakers.) The tariffs Trump has been touting have drawn concern and criticism. Speaking in Michigan October 26, VP Harris said: "Donald Trump will impose a 20% Trump national sales tax on everyday basic necessities, which will cost, the economists have measured, it will cost the average family nearly $4,000 a year. On the other hand, I will take on an issue like corporate price gouging. I've done it before, and I will do it again. Donald Trump will give massive tax cuts to billionaires and the biggest corporations exactly like he did the last time he was president. I will give middle class tax cuts to 100 million Americans, including $6,000 during the first year of a child's life that will also lift America's children out of poverty." Global tax — The OECD October 24 released a tax report that was provided to G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors ahead of their final meeting of the Brazilian G20 Presidency on October 23-24. According to the report, the remaining focus for BEPS Pillar One will be on reaching consensus on Amount B and its elective approach. Amount B is intended to simplify and streamline the application of the arm's-length principle to baseline marketing and distribution activities, with a particular focus on the needs of low-capacity countries (the so-called Amount B approach). The G20 communique released at the conclusion of the meeting called for the OECD Inclusive Framework "to expeditiously complete the negotiations on a final package on Pillar One by resolving the remaining issues on a framework for Amount B and allowing the Multilateral Convention (MLC) to be finalized and opened for signing as soon as possible." Meanwhile, at the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank last week, there were concerns expressed that "rising protectionism and thousands of new industrial policy measures enacted by countries around the world over the last year are threatening future growth prospects," the New York Times reported. Tying in the presidential election, the report said those who espouse open markets and international cooperation "could soon become even more isolated if former President Donald J. Trump is re-elected. Mr. Trump is promising to upend the rules of international commerce by ratcheting up the kind of trade wars and protectionist policies that characterized his first term." With Congress away, What to Expect in Washington is being published less frequently, though WCEY Alerts will be issued as events warrant.
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