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The long runway of speculation over the historically close presidential election between Republican candidate Former President Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris, and the congressional elections, is ending with Election Day. Eleventh-hour polling showed the race — described in various sources as a coin toss, dead heat, and on a knife edge — tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan, Harris slightly ahead in Wisconsin and other battlegrounds, and Trump ahead by 4 percentage points in Arizona. A Des Moines Register poll released on Saturday showed VP Harris leading Former President Trump in Iowa, which has been solidly Republican in prior elections, on the strength of older, female voters. Trump is seen as appealing more to younger, male voters, and the gender gap is an oft-cited theme in the election.

Both candidates expressed confidence in the home stretch of a neck-and-neck race in which they have alternately pulled ahead. "Harris advisers and allies still believe their most promising path to victory runs through the 'blue wall' states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. But they say they are still targeting all seven battleground states — a group that also includes Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada — creating multiple pathways to 270 electoral votes if one of the blue-wall states were to fall to Republicans … " a story in the Sunday Washington Post said. "Trump's most viable path to 270 electoral voters relies on winning North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Georgia. He lost Georgia by less than 12,000 votes in 2020 … But, like Harris's team, his advisers say they are pushing ahead in all seven battleground states."

Beyond who wins the presidency are the prospects for, in the congressional elections, an unprecedented flip of the House and Senate to opposite parties — the Senate map favors Republicans to win the currently Democratic-controlled chamber, and House control is a jump ball, but more toss-up races are in 2020 Biden-won districts — and the scenario not seen in recent decades under which an incoming president, be it either candidate, doesn't have both chambers under their party's control at the start of their term.

The Cook Political Report on Friday changed some House ratings, moving the open Michigan race (MI-07) to replace Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), running for Senate, from toss-up to Lean Republican, and two Republican races of Anthony D'Esposito (NY-04) and Don Bacon (NE-02) from toss-up to Lean Democrat. "Five House Republicans in California are in races considered 'tossups' and at risk of losing their seats, making it a top state to watch on election night … " today's Wall Street Journal said. "A 2022 surge in Republican enthusiasm led several of the party's New York candidates to capture Democrat-held seats during the midterm election … Five Republicans, including Long Island Reps. Nick LaLota and Anthony D'Esposito, are seen at most risk of losing their seats to Democratic challengers in purple or blue-leaning areas."

A November 2 New York Times story, "A Tight Senate Battle Comes Down to a Few Key Races," said Republicans "have already all but claimed West Virginia," where Republican Jim Justice is the candidate for a seat left open by the retirement of Senator Joe Manchin (I-WV); the top Republican target has been Senator Jon Tester's (D-MT) seat in Montana; and the remaining focus is on seats held by Democrats in Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, and on Republican seats in Texas and Nebraska.

"Democrats note that all of their endangered Senate candidates have been outperforming the party's presidential ticket in their states, making them optimistic that they can offset Mr. Trump's strength in red states such as Ohio and Montana and sweep the swing states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan," the story said. "They also have long-shot hopes of defeating the Republican firebrand Ted Cruz in Texas, and of benefiting from an upset defeat of Senator Deb Fischer of Nebraska, who is facing an unexpectedly steep challenge from an independent opponent."

There is some expectation that who controls the House may not be known for days or even weeks after the elections given the often-protracted vote-counting in states like California, and there are two toss-up House races in Arizona. With all 435 House seats on the ballot, it's not unusual for a handful of races to remain unresolved for an extended period of time for a variety of reasons, simply as a statistical matter. But with a narrow four-seat Republican majority, these unresolved races could determine control of the House.

There may also be delays in determining the winner of the presidential race, and there has been some reporting about changes in battleground states that could slow vote counting; and continuation of existing practices, like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin disallowing mail ballots to be counted prior to Election Day. PBS reported that Georgia and Arizona will both require election workers to do hand counts at polling sites on Election Day. A week ago, the Nevada Supreme Court upheld a ruling that postmarked ballots can be counted up to four days after Election Day, and non-postmarked ballots up to three days after Election Day.

Axios recounted how long it took for each state to be called in the 2020 election:

• "45 states and the District of Columbia were called within 24 hours, but Biden and Trump remained short of the 270 electoral vote threshold for victory.
• The Pennsylvania call in Biden's favor — over 87 hours after polls closed there — decided the race. The call for Nevada came about 50 minutes later …
• Key swing states Georgia and North Carolina took much longer to be called in 2020, and it's entirely possible that this year's election could hinge on the results there.
• The AP called North Carolina for Trump on Nov. 13 (10 days) and Georgia for Biden on Nov. 19 (16 days) after hand recounts."

Economy — Both candidates cited the economy in their closing arguments to voters.

Former President Trump posted on social media November 2: "If Kamala wins, you are 3 days away from the start of a 1929-style economic depression. If I win, you are 3 days away from the best jobs, the biggest paychecks, and the brightest economic future the world has ever seen."

In Charlotte, NC, November 2, VP Harris said: "Donald Trump's answer to the financial pressures you face — same as it was last time: Another trillion dollars in tax cuts for billionaires and big corporations. And this time, he will pay for it with a 20% national sales tax on everything you buy that is imported clothes, food, toys, cell phones. A Trump sales tax that economists have estimated will cost you an additional $4,000 a year. And on top of that, Donald Trump still wants to get rid of the Affordable Care act."

Health care — The future of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) has been in the news after House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), who said in June that a GOP reconciliation bill would be broad in scope and address many issues including tax, made comments last week suggesting Republicans want to make major health care changes, and later clarified that those plans don't include ACA repeal.

An editorial in the November 2 WSJ, "Republicans Won't Repeal ObamaCare," said some discrete reforms, short of ACA repeal, that Republicans have discussed to lower costs and improve care include:

• Repeal of the law's medical loss ratio, which requires insurers to spend 80% to 85% of premium dollars on medical claims
• Rolling back the Administration's rules that make the ACA more vulnerable to fraud, including from misreported incomes and inflated subsidies
• Expanding short-term health plans, "which don't have to provide benefits not all people need, such as pediatric services, maternity care and mental-health treatment"
• Expanding access to association health plans to let employers in the same industry or area band together to provide coverage
• Shifting "healthy, lower-income adults from Medicaid to ACA exchanges so states can't game ObamaCare's rules to squeeze more money" and "also improve care for sick Medicaid patients"

Former President Barack Obama posted on social media November 3: "The ACA protects folks with pre-existing conditions from being denied coverage, allows young people to stay on a parent's plan until they're 26, and expands Medicaid. But Donald Trump still wants to end it — and he only has 'concepts of a plan' for how he'd replace it."

Tax — There continues to be reporting about how Republicans in Congress, if the election goes their way, will regard Trump's additional tax proposals beyond TCJA extensions — he has proposed a family tax credit for caregivers who care for a parent or loved one, exempting tip and overtime income and Social Security benefits from tax, making auto loan interest tax deductible, providing tax relief for expats, and restoring the SALT deduction.

Punchbowl News last night reported House Ways & Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith as saying, "We'll be able to deliver on the overall themes of what he's asking for. You know, the Devil's in the details in anything — the no tax on tips, the overtime, the no tax on Social Security benefits. We have solutions and ideas, and we've been working back and forth, getting scores on different proposals. But we're determined to deliver on the president's priorities." Smith also mentioned the Committee's GOP Tax Teams and, regarding what's next, said, "After the election, I've told the team … expect to be very busy in November, December, early January because we have to get a tax bill ready and sent."

Wednesday, November 6 (4:30 p.m. ET), is the EY Webcast, "Post-election 2024: key insights for business leaders."

Friday, November 8 (12:00 p.m. ET), is the EY Webcast, "Special post-election edition: Tax in a time of transition."