President-elect Trump posted on social media last night: "Members of Congress are getting to work on one powerful Bill that will bring our Country back, and make it greater than ever before. We must Secure our Border, Unleash American Energy, and Renew the Trump Tax Cuts, which were the largest in History, but we will make it even better - NO TAX ON TIPS. IT WILL ALL BE MADE UP WITH TARIFFS, AND MUCH MORE, FROM COUNTRIES THAT HAVE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF THE U.S. FOR YEARS. Republicans must unite, and quickly deliver these Historic Victories for the American People. Get smart, tough, and send the Bill to my desk to sign as soon as possible. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!"

The post seems to end, for now at least, the weeks-long suspense over Trump's preference for how the Republican-controlled Congress would approach their priority issues that have been eyed for the budget reconciliation process that allows for GOP-only enactment with a simple-majority vote in the Senate. Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) argued weeks ago for two separate packages, headlined by border first and extensions of Tax Cuts & Jobs Act (TCJA) provisions later (two reconciliation packages are possible under the FY2025 and FY2026 budgets), while House Ways & Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO) favored the all-in-one approach Trump has apparently settled on. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) had told members during a Saturday retreat that Trump wants "one big, beautiful bill" under budget reconciliation.

Some House Republicans have pondered whether a second reconciliation bill next year could be assured. The December 2024 process of approving a government funding continuing resolution (CR) exposed how congressional plans could be dashed by the objections of just a few Republicans and the power of social media, as well as the desire of some to seek deep spending cuts in conjunction with tax cut extensions. It's unclear if that exercise had any effect on turning the tide toward the one-bill approach, but Trump advisors like Larry Kudlow have in recent weeks been pushing for tax cut extensions to move early, not wait.

Speaker Johnson said on Fox News on Sunday that he wants to pass a budget resolution with reconciliation instructions in early February, pass the reconciliation bill in the House in early April, and have it on Trump's desk "certainly by May" or "in a worst-case scenario, Memorial Day." (For historical reference the President George W. Bush EGTRRA tax cut bill was approved by Congress in May 2001. The TCJA was late-year 2017 after Republicans first focused on Affordable Care Act repeal.) Punchbowl News reported, "This was the big point in favor of Thune's two-bill plan. He didn't want to wait that long to score a big legislative victory."

After convening his members for a retreat at Fort McNair on Saturday, Speaker Johnson said Sunday, "I think, at the end of the day, President Trump is going to prefer, as he likes to say, one big, beautiful bill. And there's a lot of merit to that, because we can put it all together, one big up-or-down vote, which can save the country, quite literally, because there are so many elements to it. And it'll give us a little bit more time to negotiate that and get it right." He suggested the size of the bill could extinguish some of the flashpoints that could ignite on tax, saying, "no one's going to love every element of a large package like that but there will be enough elements in there to pull everyone along." Speaker Johnson said part of reviving the economy is preventing the end-of-2025 tax increase. "So, we're going to make sure that happens," he said. "We're going to incentivize American companies to manufacture in the US again."

The Wall Street Journal said of one big bill, "Theoretically, that strategy can work to unite a disparate coalition that can coalesce behind something that Trump deems important. But the challenge is that some lawmakers might object to pieces that others view as essential. And complicated legislative debates have a tendency to consume time until there is a real deadline — in this case the midyear need to raise the debt limit or the tax-cut expiration looming on Dec. 31."

The President-elect is set to convene groups of Republican members at his Mar-a-Lago resort, including House committee chairs, the Freedom Caucus conservative group, and representatives of high-tax states concerned about continuing the $10,000 SALT deduction cap.

Johnson said of the prospects for raising or eliminating the debt ceiling as part of that big bill, "I think we're going to have to do it in that bill … If you do it in reconciliation, you can do it just with the Republican party." The current debt limit suspension ended January 1, 2025, and extraordinary measures are expected to be used by the Treasury Department from mid-January through sometime midyear to pay the nation's bills. Addressing the debt limit is allowed under reconciliation rules, but Congress rarely uses the process to increase the debt limit, because for political reasons the majority party will typically want the minority party to join in supporting the debt limit increase or further suspension. Republicans in charge of Congress will also have to oversee the appropriations process to extend government funding beyond March 14, 2025.

On Face the Nation yesterday, Senator Thune, a former House member, said, "these are unusual circumstances with respect to the margins, particularly in the house, but we expect to deliver on what the American people asked us to do." He suggested Republicans need to take advantage of reconciliation, saying it enables them the relatively rare opportunity to pass border security and immigration enforcement with a 51-vote threshold, as opposed to 60.

On tax, Thune seemed to downplay the need for revenue offsets for TCJA extensions, saying the $4 trillion in tax provisions that expire is "current policy" and, "I'm a big believer in pro-growth tax policy. I believe you get a lot of that back through growth and additional revenue. Every 1% increase in GDP and economic growth, we're told, generates about $3 trillion in additional tax revenue. So, you're going to get some back in terms of a growth dividend, and there will be spending cuts."

Speaker Johnson and Leader Thune both promised spending cuts in their weekend interviews, and such cuts now seem entwined with the tax legislation. During the CR negotiations in December, House Republicans reportedly discussed an agreement to increase the debt limit by $1.5 trillion alongside a promise to cut $2.5 trillion in "net mandatory spending in the reconciliation process." And in a December letter to Republican leaders, conservatives from both the House and Senate called for dynamic scoring of a tax bill — as Leader Thune was alluding to — and said it should reduce the deficit through spending reforms and cuts like rolling back green energy credits and "the estimated $2.5 trillion worth of cuts that the Department of Government Efficiency will identify as necessary to restore the fiscal health of the nation."

There isn't exact clarity on how formulation of a big bill would work, as members acknowledge. "We use this phrase on Capitol Hill often, you have to build the plane while it's in the air. That's what you're about to see," Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL) said yesterday. "And so, yes, tax policy, yes, energy policy, the DOGE work from Vivek and Elon is going to be a major part of this. There's going to have to be reforms to some pieces of mandatory spending."

Also on Fox News on Sunday, Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC), who previously expressed support for a two-bill approach, said he worries both about the effects of not putting border first and not getting it done, as well as about how long a tax bill will take. "As we negotiate tax cuts, [there are] tax-cutting people — and I'm one of them — that won't vote for border until they get all their taxes. I'm not a big fan of the SALT deduction. I live in South Carolina, where we have low taxes. Why should people in South Carolina subsidize California and New York tax policy? You're going to have a hard time with me on that."

Of course, Johnson was meeting with members and being interviewed this weekend after winning the speakership vote on Friday over some opposition. Conservative holdouts were won over by President-elect Trump and the interest of facilitating the ability to act on his agenda. "House Speaker Mike Johnson talked to Trump before Friday's speakership vote and vowed he'd focus on extending the president-elect's tax cuts immediately … " Semafor reported. "Those assurances helped boost Johnson in Trump's eyes."

But the difficulty of the process combined with the uproar from some members ahead of the December 2024 CR vote and success of some conservatives in Congress and the incoming administration in drastically scaling back the bill, particularly the health package, portend the difficulty leaders face in legislating this year. "To keep power, Johnson may need Trump to keep serving as a unifying force who demands that lawmakers stay loyal to his choice for speaker and help pass key legislation," said the Sunday Washington Post. "The optimistic Republican view relies almost entirely on Trump to continue serving as a unifying force who demands that everyone falls in line behind his choice for speaker, as well as key legislation."

The House and Senate are back today, and Congress is required to meet in Joint Session to count electoral votes, which is scheduled to get underway at 1 p.m.

There are only two votes on the House schedule, as some Republicans are set to meet with President-elect Trump at Mar-a-Lago later in the week:

• H.R. 29 — Laken Riley Act (Sponsored by Rep. Collins / Judiciary Committee)
• H.R. 23 — Illegitimate Court Counteraction Act (Sponsored by Rep. Roy / Foreign Affairs Committee)