After a day of suspense in which Republican leaders worked to round up the necessary votes, the House on February 25 passed Republicans' FY2025 budget resolution (H. Con. Res. 14) by a vote of 217-215, a margin of a single vote.

The only Republican to vote against the resolution was Thomas Massie (R-KY), while all Democrats present voted against. The only absent Democratic member was Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ), who is battling cancer.

House leaders summoned members to the floor to vote on an unrelated bill at 6:30 pm, then kept that 15-minute vote open for an hour as they applied pressure on Republicans to vote aye. At 7:30 pm, members were told that the budget vote was canceled, then within minutes GOP leaders notified them that the vote was back on again.

Politico reported that Rep. Tim Burchett (R-TN) switched his position to support the budget after President Trump assured him there would be sufficient spending cuts, while another holdout, Warren Davidson (R-OH), said he changed his mind after securing promises regarding spending cuts related to the March 14 government funding deadline.

Under the budget resolution, House committees would have to produce legislation to advance President Trump's tax, border, energy and defense priorities. The budget resolution also includes a measure to increase the debt limit by $4 trillion. Passage of the resolution formally begins the budget reconciliation process in the House, allowing Republicans to enact legislation under a simple majority in the Senate instead of the usual 60-vote filibuster threshold, as long as all provisions comply with strict budget rules that are adjudicated by the Senate parliamentarian.

The House budget resolution requires at least $2 trillion in deficit reduction from other committees to avail the Ways & Means Committee a full $4.5 trillion net deficit increase for tax cuts.

According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), a 10-year extension of expiring TCJA tax provisions would cost $4 trillion over 10 years, not including interest costs. Bonus depreciation is included in that figure, but addressing TCJA pre-cliffs on five-year R&D amortization and the calculation for interest expense deductions (EBITDA to EBIT) could be $200 billion more, leaving little room for other tax cuts.

The reconciliation instruction to Ways & Means is for a $4.5 trillion net deficit increase to cover the TCJA for 10 years; revenue offsets in the Committee's jurisdiction could fit a higher level of tax cuts. Instructions to other committees add up to a floor of $1.5 trillion in spending cuts, but if they don't achieve $2 trillion in spending cuts, the leeway for tax cuts could be reduced to $4 trillion.

The House resolution also includes room for spending on President Trump's other legislative priorities, including defense and energy provisions, and funding U.S.-Mexico border wall construction and expenses surrounding deportation of undocumented immigrants.

The Senate, meanwhile, has taken a two-bill approach and last week passed its own FY2025 budget resolution (S. Con. Res. 7) after a marathon all-night session working through amendments. That measure is limited to action on border, immigration and defense policies, with Senate GOP leaders planning a second, tax-focused reconciliation bill later this year if the House were unable to move forward with its one-bill approach. Given the House's initial success in passing its budget, the Senate may shift to a strategy of amending the House measure or engaging in a bicameral conference.