The Senate Finance Committee tax and health sections of Senate Republicans' version of the House-passed One Big, Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA, H.R. 1) to extend Tax Cuts & Jobs Act (TCJA) provisions expiring at the end of 2025 and cut mandatory spending are expected to be released today. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Mike Crapo (R-ID) is set to brief members this evening. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and other leaders plan to spend this week negotiating changes to the bill before planned floor consideration and a vote next week (week of June 23). Also this week, review by the Parliamentarian will continue to determine whether the bill meets the Byrd Rule's revenue parameters for reconciliation bills (known as a "Byrd bath").

Asked on Sunday Morning Futures whether floor consideration is still expected for next week, Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso (R-WY) said, "The plan is to, the week before the Fourth of July, to move to the floor in the United States Senate. We're still working on so much of the proposal." He said the Finance Committee has already identified over $1 trillion in spending cuts. Asked about the objections to the bill from Senators Rand Paul (R-KY) and Ron Johnson (R-WI) over fiscal issues related to the bill, on which Republicans can only afford three "no" votes, Barrasso said, "As the Majority Whip, I listen to all of the members, listen closely. I am optimistic and confident that we will accomplish this for the American people to make their lives better to provide the safety and prosperity that they have voted for."

As last week closed, there were expectations of Senate changes to the House-passed legislation in several areas: TCJA pre-cliffs (making them permanent), Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) energy tax credit modifications, President Trump's tax proposals, and possibly a TBD blank space for the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap or a reduction in the House bill's $40,000 limit for household incomes under $500,000. Morning Tax reported, "Today's Senate Finance Committee product is expected to have some gaps, with placeholders left for particularly delicate matters — like, say, how to handle the cap on state and local deductions."

Punchbowl News reported this morning, "Senate Republicans are planning to revise the House GOP rollback of some clean energy tax credits. Finance Republicans are considering making some phase-outs gentler and others more aggressive based on energy type. Republican moderates in both chambers feel strongly about a slower energy credit wind-down. The House Freedom Caucus is adamant about big cuts quickly."

On Fox News Sunday, Leader Thune said regarding the need for some SALT relief, "At the end of the day, you've got to get 51 senators and 218 House members to get a bill on the president's desk. So, obviously, we're very cognizant of the political dynamics that the speaker is dealing within the House. That said, in the Senate at least, there isn't a high-level of interest in doing anything on SALT. We believe there's a matter of policy. You don't want to have low-tax states subsidizing high-tax states. So, I think at the end of the day, we'll find a landing spot."

Asked about last week's comments by Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) that, while the Senate may vote on the bill by July 4, it will only match up 60%-70% with the House bill, suggesting there will be significant differences to sort through in the following weeks, Leader Thune expressed confidence in meeting the July 4 target: "We will roll into the Fourth of July recess, if necessary, in order to get this on the President's desk."

Last week, there were indications that member concerns about fiscal issues related to the reconciliation bill — expressed by Senators including Johnson, Paul, Mike Lee (R-UT), and Rick Scott (R-FL) — were softening. "We all want to see President Trump succeed," Senator Johnson said in Politico. "Everybody is trying to help. That's why, if I seem to have been striking a more hopeful tone, it's because I am more hopeful."

Asked on Meet the Press Sunday about his conditions for voting for the reconciliation bill, Senator Paul said: "Separate out the debt ceiling and have a separate vote on it. And I won't be the deciding vote on this. This is what I tell my supporters. If I am the deciding vote, they'll negotiate. If I'm not, they won't. So far, they've been sending their attack dogs after me, and that's not a great persuasion technique. But I will negotiate if they come to me, but they have to be willing to negotiate on the debt ceiling because I'm conservative and I'm not going to no longer be conservative just because the president wants me to vote for something."

Congress — The Senate is back in today (Monday, June 16) and scheduled to be in session through Wednesday, with work continuing on the reconciliation bill. A vote is scheduled at 5:30 p.m. related to the nomination of Gary Andres to be an Assistant Secretary of Health and Human Services.

The House is out of session this week.