Amid some concerns about employment and health costs, Congress begins a pivotal week for setting its agenda for the remainder of the year: seeking a bipartisan path forward for government funding, which will have effects on how outstanding/expiring tax, health and trade items may be addressed before the end of 2025.

Republican leaders want to pass a clean continuing resolution (CR) this week to extend government funding past September 30, likely through November 20. Congress will be out next week (September 22-26). Politico reported that the text of the CR could be released as soon as today and House passage may not leave the Senate enough time to process the bill this week, perhaps leaving it for September 29-30. Other reports said attention will be on the House and whether a bill can pass without any policy additions sought by Democrats, putting pressure on the Senate to avert a government shutdown.

There are differing opinions between the parties — and within each party — on the main additional issue in the funding debate: an extension of enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) premium tax credits that expire at the end of 2025. Senate Republican leaders say that regardless of the merits of that issue, a CR beyond September 30 must be "clean," suggesting policy add-ons would need to be negotiated for a later bill.

Democratic support is needed to gain 60 votes in the Senate for a government funding bill. Some Democratic members want Medicaid cuts in the "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBBA) reversed, which seems unlikely, and so attention is on the enhanced ACA premium tax credits. Democratic leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) says Republicans won't have Democratic votes unless they engage in bipartisan negotiations and health care is the focus. In a September 10 speech, Senator Schumer denounced the health changes in the OBBBA and said, "In just a few weeks, unless Congress acts, millions of Americans will start getting letters in the mail telling them their health insurance costs are about to go through the roof — hundreds of dollars, thousands in some cases. That's because the ACA premium tax credits will expire by the end of this year."

In a September 13 AP story, "Millions face skyrocketing health insurance costs unless Congress extends subsidies," Senate Finance Committee Chairman Mike Crapo (R-ID), "who has jurisdiction over the tax credits, said he's working with his colleagues to figure out if there is a solution. 'There are a lot of ideas being thrown out there,' Crapo said. 'I'm trying to find a solution, I'm not telling you what the solution is.' Others were firmly against it. 'It's costing us billions of dollars,' said Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI)."

There are also differences of opinion among House Republicans. Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington (R-TX) and members of the House Freedom Caucus are among the main opponents of extending the expanded credits. Other Republicans — including the dozen Republicans who support Rep. Jen Kiggans' (R-VA) "Bipartisan Premium Tax Credit Extension Act" (H.R. 4145) to extend the enhanced credits for one year — are in favor of acting on the premium tax credit issue. And some members are cognizant of increasing health insurance costs and premiums.

Following on similar reporting in the September 11 Wall Street Journal (WSJ), a story in the September 13 Washington Post, "Health insurers set to hike prices, increasing costs for consumers," said: "Health insurance costs in the United States are on track for their biggest jump in at least five years … adding turbulence to an uncertain economy and boosting expenses for millions of Americans already beset by inflation. In 2026, businesses will be hit with an increase of 9 percent or more, and they are expected to push some of the burden onto employees." Additionally, "For the 24 million enrollees of Affordable Care Act insurance plans, however, the news is far worse. The end of enhanced federal subsidies for that program means their costs are expected to rise by more than 75 percent next year … "

Punchbowl News reported about the premium tax credits issue last night, "What Republicans really need is direction from the White House. In the meantime, they're staking out different positions on the subsidy's expiration." Some Republican leaders, like House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO) and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), have said they welcome proposals to reduce the cost of an extension of the enhanced credits.

Federal Reserve

The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds its regular rate-setting meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday under a magnifying glass, as the Senate is racing to confirm the President's Fed Board nominee, Stephen Miran, on Monday so Miran can be in place at the FOMC meeting. The White House has also appealed a federal judge's ruling last week blocking Fed Governor Lisa Cook from being fired by President Trump for cause. Rulings by an appeals court and possibly the U.S. Supreme Court could come down early this week on whether Cook can remain on the Board of Governors for the meeting. The FOMC is widely expected to cut the federal funds rate by a quarter-point.

Congress

The Senate will convene at 3 p.m. today (Monday, September 15) with two votes at 5:30 p.m. (and potentially more, later in the evening):

• Adoption of S. Res. 377, a resolution authorizing the en bloc consideration in Executive Session of certain nominations on the Executive Calendar
• A procedural vote related to the nomination of Stephen Miran to be a Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

On Wednesday, September 17 at 10 a.m., the Senate HELP Committee will hold a hearing on "Restoring Trust Through Radical Transparency: Reviewing Recent Events at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Implications for Children's Health." Witnesses are Susan Monarez, former CDC Director and Debra Houry, former chief medical officer, CDC.

The House is also back in session today with suspension votes beginning at 6:30 p.m., including on a bill (H.R. 5100) to extend the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) and Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) programs that address small business R&D and are scheduled to expire on September 30. Other bills under the jurisdiction of the Transportation & Infrastructure and Veterans' Affairs committees are also to be considered under the suspension calendar.

Later in the week is consideration of Energy & Commerce Committee bills, including the Promoting Cross-border Energy Infrastructure Act (H.R. 3062), to establish a more uniform, transparent and modern process to authorize the construction, connection, operation and maintenance of international border-crossing facilities for the import and export of oil and natural gas and the transmission of electricity. Also set for consideration are District of Columbia law enforcement-related bills.

On Tuesday, September 16 at 2 p.m., the House Ways and Means Oversight Subcommittee will hold a hearing on "Virtue Signaling vs. Vital Services: Where Tax-Exempt Hospitals are Spending Your Tax Dollars."

On Thursday, September 18 at 9:30 a.m., the House Energy and Commerce Committee will hold a hearing on "Legislation Expanding Seniors' Access to Innovative Medical Care."

The Ways and Means Committee may hold a markup of health care legislation, though it hasn't yet been noticed.