Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) has more directly offered Democrats a vote on an extension of enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) premium tax credits within a specific timeframe, but only after they provide the necessary votes for a continuing resolution (CR) to extend government funding and end the shutdown. "We can guarantee you get a vote by a date certain," Leader Thune said on MSNBC. "At some point, Democrats have to take 'yes' for an answer." Punchbowl News reported Leader Thune as saying he has offered Democrats a two-vote deal: one on opening the government, the other on a separate one-year extension of enhanced premium tax credits.

Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) told reporters he was unaware of such an offer. Senators such as Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) had suggested before the shutdown that a promise by Republican leaders to hold a vote on extending ACA subsidies could be enough for some members to back the GOP CR. But she suggested to MSNBC that her thinking has evolved, and Thune's offer isn't sufficient. "When the shutdown was just starting, we requested that," she said Thursday. "That's been almost three weeks ago, and they wouldn't do it, wouldn't do it, wouldn't do it. And now he has moved but everybody else has moved, too."

And so, a third workweek closes with the government shut down. Senator John N. Kennedy (R-LA) was the latest member to forecast a potentially lengthy shutdown. Asked on CNN whether he thinks it will go past Thanksgiving, he said, "I do. I just don't see what's going to get us out of it." Democrats have thus far not been swayed to relent in providing votes for the CR by the Administration's cuts to Democratic funding programs and federal workforce layoffs. Earlier this week, President Trump suggested there would be more cuts to Democratic priority programs and "we're going to have a list of them on Friday."

As they resist tying the ACA credits to the CR, Politico reported October 16 that Republicans are considering extending the enhanced credits in a potential bipartisan year-end bill with some of their own priorities. "Republicans have been discussing a menu of other options in the health care policy arena, both among themselves and with White House officials," the story said. "Ideas include overhauling the operation of drug intermediaries, known as pharmacy benefit managers; granting Americans additional options around Health Savings Accounts; and allowing more flexible employer-provided health insurance plans."

Before leaving for the weekend, the Senate took a tenth vote in relation to the House-passed CR (H.R. 5371), which failed 51-45 without any new support in addition to the existing three Democratic "yes" votes (Senators Cortez Masto, Fetterman, and King). Four senators didn't vote, and Senator Thune changed his vote to "no" for procedural reasons. "All we need are five courageous Democrats with a backbone who aren't afraid to buck their leadership who are marching them right over a cliff," Leader Thune said Wednesday. Another vote related to the CR is set for Monday, October 20 at 5:30 p.m.

Senate Republican leaders are preparing to try to move annual appropriations bills during the shutdown, but a procedural vote related to the Department of Defense Appropriations Act failed 50-44 on October 16. Most Democrats voted against the measure due to the circumstances of the shutdown. The Senate is also planning to vote on Senator Ron Johnson's (R-WI) bill (S. 3012) "to appropriate funds for pay and allowances of excepted Federal employees for periods of work performed during a lapse in appropriations." There is expected to be a focus among Senate Republicans on paying active-duty military members, which the Administration is currently covering using an alternative funding stream.

Even before the standoff over ACA credits, Democrats were wary of joining Republicans in supporting government funding legislation following the President's July 24 rescissions package and the late August "pocket rescission." Democrats say they can't rely on a bipartisan agreement if it may be rolled back later. An October 16 New York Times analysis said, "With Mr. Trump and Russell T. Vought, his director of the Office of Management and Budget, promising to pursue more rescissions — deep cuts proposed by the White House in spending already blessed by Congress — Democrats are effectively being asked to sign onto a deal that they know can be unilaterally undone by a defiant president and a compliant Republican majority."

Elections — Maine Governor Janet Mills (D) has entered the race to challenge Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) in next year's midterm elections. Election analysis organizations including the Cook Political Report and the UVA Center for Politics moved the race from favoring Senator Collins into the toss-up category. Republicans are defending 20 Senate seats in the 2026 elections, plus two currently filled by appointed senators to replace two members who joined the Trump administration — Vice President JD Vance (Ohio) and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (Florida). Democrats are defending 13 seats. In addition to the Maine seat, only three others are currently rated as toss-ups: the Georgia seat of Democrat Jon Ossoff (D-GA) and open seats for retiring senators in North Carolina (Thom Tillis) and Michigan (Gary Peters).

The EY Center for Tax Policy's "Tax in a time of transition" webcast series continues today, October 17, at 12 p.m. ET. Register.