There were no new revelations in weekend press stories about the government shutdown that's lasted three weeks, in terms of how it began or how it may end. Democrats want an extension of enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) premium tax credits included in a continuing resolution (CR) to extend government funding and are withholding the necessary votes for a CR because Republicans won't include an extension of the enhanced credits. There has been roughly as much attention on the financial distress of higher health care premiums if the enhanced credits expire as there has been on the economic damage of the shutdown.

Last week, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) expressed some openness to promising a vote on an extension of the ACA tax credits within a specific timeframe, but only after Democrats provide the necessary votes for a CR to end the shutdown. It was widely described as a potential "off ramp" to the funding impasse. Such a deal held the promise of being sufficient to meet the demands of at least some Democrats at the time the shutdown began, but members have said in recent days that they have moved on to a higher standard for agreement.

Asked on NBC's "Meet the Press" why Democrats won't take that offer, Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) said, "There's really two issues at stake:

• And the first is everybody's health care is going to go sky-high between now and the end of the year because of the reconciliation bill cuts that Republicans made to tax credits and to Medicaid. And we're trying to stop that from happening. Offering a vote in the Senate without a commitment that it would pass, without a commitment that the House would even take it up, is an empty offer. We want to negotiate a resolution, so people's health care costs don't spike. And Republicans are saying the same thing. They know they need to fix this, so let's fix it now.
• The second issue we need to know is that a deal is a deal. If we shake hands with President Trump on a deal, we don't want him then next week just firing thousands more people, canceling economic development projects, canceling public health funds. So, we are trying to get an agreement that a deal is a deal, all sides will honor it, and let's go ahead and protect people from these spiking health care costs. The promise of a vote in the Senate without the promise of action is hollow."

Even before the standoff over ACA credits, Democrats were wary of joining Republicans in supporting government funding legislation following the President's July 24 rescissions package and the late August "pocket rescission." Democrats say they can't rely on a bipartisan agreement if it may be rolled back later, a sentiment reflected in Senator Kaine's comments.

Health care — Democrats' championing the ACA credits has resulted in Republicans providing assurances that they are working on health care issues too. On ABC's "This Week," House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) said: "We're fighting for health care as well. Not just in word; but in deed. We put it in the One Big, Beautiful Bill, the working families tax cut, real reforms to Medicaid to make it work better to preserve the program because we had illegal aliens receiving benefits, we had young able-bodied men who were not working. They don't have dependents. They were riding the wagon. We clean that up in our bill." He said, "In their counterproposal, what Chuck Schumer is arguing for — he wants to reverse those reforms, which would be a terrible policy decision."

Republicans spent years trying to repeal the ACA and some are still calling for it. But some Republican House members back a bill to extend the program's enhanced premium credits. The Bipartisan Premium Tax Credit Extension Act, H.R. 5145, to extend the enhanced credits for one year, has 15 GOP cosponsors. The subsidies issue is seen as reigniting the debate over where the GOP stands on health care issues. "Whether or not [Speaker] Johnson wants to have a health care debate, the prolonged shutdown has forced him and his colleagues to defend their opposition to tax credits that are popular across the political spectrum … " said an October 19 New York Times story titled, "Shutdown Fight Reopens Debate in G.O.P. Over Health Care." It said, "For now, Democrats believe that a prolonged discussion of health care is so advantageous to them that it is worth the political risk of a lengthy shutdown."

So, too, do Republicans feel justified in refusing to accede to Democrats' demands on what they view as an extraneous issue in the health subsidies. "The confidence and cohesion from Republicans on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue — and a similar confidence among Democrats — augurs no quick end to what is approaching one of the longest shutdowns in history," said an October 19 Politico story with the headline "Nearly 3 weeks in, White House and GOP remain aligned on shutdown."

As the shutdown wears on, the November 21 end date of the Republican House-passed CR provides a shorter runway for a longer-term approach to government funding, and the November open enrollment period and end-of-2025 expiration of the enhanced ACA credits put pressure on decisions for the credits.

"Any deal to end the shutdown is expected to involve a fix for the expiring ACA subsidies, which flow to more than 20 million people. But extending the enhanced subsidies would be difficult to swallow for Republicans in Congress, who have spent the past decade and a half railing against the 2010 law that passed — and was later expanded — with only Democratic votes," said an October 19 Wall Street Journal story, "Congress Is Running Out of Time to Decide the Fate of Obamacare Subsidies."

"It is a galling predicament for many Republicans, who must reckon with the fact that a growing number of their own voters have come to depend on the subsidies, which would revert to lower levels and help fewer people if not extended," the story said. "The enhanced subsidies spurred the number of ACA sign-ups to more than double since 2021, largely in red states."

Punchbowl News reported this morning: "Nov. 1, the start of open enrollment for health insurance, could be a moment for Senate Democrats to declare 'victory' and allow the government to reopen. Last week, top Democrats pushed back on this theory, saying Nov. 1 will only increase the pressure on Republicans to accede to their health care demands … [T]here's a sense within the Senate Democratic Caucus that this deadline is in fact their off-ramp to end the shutdown. Democrats can argue it's no longer feasible for Congress to address the expiring Obamacare subsidies legislatively."

Schedule — The Senate has taken multiple votes in relation to the House-passed CR (H.R. 5371), all of which have failed without gaining any new support beyond three Democratic "yes" votes (Senators Cortez Masto, Fetterman and King, an independent who caucuses with Democrats). Another vote related to the CR is set for today (Monday, October 20) at 5:30 p.m. President Trump is hosting Republican senators for a Rose Garden lunch on Tuesday.

The House has been out of session for a month, with no plans to return this week. Speaker Johnson said Sunday, "I refuse to allow us to come back and engage in anything until the government's reopened, when the Democrats do the right thing for the people. They're playing politics, and we have to use every ounce of leverage we have to make sure they do the right thing."

Trade — Asked on Fox Sunday Morning Futures how long it will take for his tariff policies to bring supply chains back to the U.S., President Trump said, "Fast. The pharmaceuticals are coming back already, again, tariffs. So, essentially, I'm putting tariffs on pharmaceuticals unless they're made here. They're all coming back. Chips. I put big tariffs on chips unless they're made here. There's no tariff if they make them here. And all those companies are coming back from Taiwan. They're coming back from all over the world. And they're coming back fast."