Rough outlines have been reported for a potential multi-pronged legislative agreement to end the government shutdown that has lasted more than five weeks — 36 days, a new record — and that was precipitated by a partisan dispute over whether to attach an extension of enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) premium tax credits to a continuing resolution (CR). The crux of the proposal is Senate Republicans agreeing to a vote on the enhanced credits by a date certain in exchange for Democratic votes for a CR, which is an approach some Senate Democrats hinted would be sufficient before the shutdown, then rebuffed when Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) offered it weeks later.

Axios November 3 reported on a three-pillared plan that promises a vote on ACA credits and a new, longer CR, and noted that while both elements "include significant question marks," the optimism was formidable. "I think we're getting close to an off-ramp here," Leader Thune said in the report. "They're trying again, and they seem more optimistic," Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL) said. Senate Democratic leaders have been highlighting premium increases and blaming Republicans — Senator Patty Murray (D-WA) called it the "MAGA healthcare hike" — but it's possible the beginning of the ACA open enrollment period allows them to sufficiently make that argument and move to end the shutdown.

Republicans would have to decide on the duration of a new short-term funding bill. Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Susan Collins (R-ME) prefers a pre-holiday end-date — perhaps December 19 — out of concern that a longer patch could ultimately result in a year-long CR. Other Republican Senators were reported as also wanting a year-end CR. Having the holidays provide a backstop is the typical approach, though some conservative Republicans worry that it too often gives way to an omnibus bill with too many unrelated measures attached. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has expressed opposition to a CR ending in December.

Leader Thune said following the regular Tuesday party lunches, "Nobody wants a year-long Continuing Resolution, least of all the Defense Department, and the best way to avoid that is to move appropriations bills. The date is still something that's being discussed … " He further said, "And if we have to change the date, which we will here in the Senate to send something back to the House, we obviously want something that will pass the House and that'll be signed into law by the President."

The potential plan's third pillar would be passage of the Military Construction-Veterans Affairs, Agriculture (which includes the Food and Drug Administration), and Legislative Branch minibus appropriations package.

Schedule — The Senate is currently scheduled to be in recess the week of November 10. Regarding the potential for that schedule to change, Punchbowl News reported November 3 that Leader Thune said "all options are on the table" but there would have to be real signs of progress by the middle of the week to keep senators in town through the weekend and beyond. The House, which has been out of session for six weeks, would need to come back to approve any CR with a different end date than the November 21 patch that has been under consideration but has grown unfeasible as that date nears.

Health care — While it is unclear that the proposal could factor into any deal, a group of House members including Ways and Means member Tom Suozzi (D-NY) released principles to temporarily extend and reform ACA Premium Tax Credits:

• two-year extension of APTCs
• income cap phased out between $200,000 and $400,000
• measures to prevent improper payments of APTCs

Rep. Suozzi said on CNN November 3, "The leadership on both sides doesn't hate the proposal. So, that's a good step forward."

The Bloomberg Daily Tax Report said some Senate Republicans including retiring Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) are similarly calling for a two-year extension of the enhanced ACA credits. Senator Collins also called for a two-year extension, saying the first year should remain the same or with minimal changes because she said it was too late for substantial reforms, while the second year should implement bigger shifts in policy, such as an income cap.

Elections — There were elections for Virginia and New Jersey governor and other state contests November 4. Democrats Abigail Spanberger, a former House member, and Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ), a current House member, won Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial contests, respectively. California voters approved Proposition 50, to allow redistricting that could result in additional Democratic seats.

Global tax — Asked on Fox Business November 4 about the topic of France considering a proposal to increase its digital services tax (DST) from 3% to 6% (not 15%, as initially reported), House Ways and Means Committee member Rep. Ron Estes (R-KS) said, "President Trump has some tools like Section 301, and even Section 891, as ways to help out. I mean, we're more than willing in Congress, a lot of us, in terms of being able to stand up for U.S. businesses, and we can pass additional legislation to help address this."

Section 301 allows the imposition of tariffs to enforce U.S. trade rights, while Section 891 allows for the doubling of rates of tax on citizens and corporations of countries who impose discriminatory or extraterritorial taxes on the US. There is also continued speculation that Republicans may revive the Section 899 reciprocal tax proposal, which was dropped from the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBBA).

Rep. Estes said of the DST: "We've been focusing and the U.S. Treasury has been working really well with OECD to fix some of the problems with this Pillar Two global minimum tax they've had out there. And so, now France is coming back and doubling their digital services tax, trying to attack any company that uses electronics, and they specifically, as you said, doubled it, but they also changed the definition of who would be liable for it. So, basically, it's targeting U.S.-based companies … "

Trade — The Supreme Court is scheduled to begin consideration of the President's authority to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) today (November 5) beginning at 10 a.m.