The effects of the now 38-day government shutdown may become more pronounced as the Department of Transportation and Federal Aviation Administration move today to reduce flights at major airports due to the funding lapse's effect on air traffic controllers. The shutdown has resulted from a partisan impasse over whether to attach an extension of enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) premium tax credits to a continuing resolution (CR) government funding patch. And while the promise of a vote on extending the enhanced credits was appearing to break the logjam days ago, in the flush of their victories in Tuesday's off-year elections, some Democrats say an ACA vote separate from the CR would amount to capitulation.

The optimism of early in the week has been supplanted by pessimism over any imminent deal. Semafor reported Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) as saying, "Sadly, I don't see this ending soon, unless enough Democrats realize this is hurting them politically … " Retiring Senator Gary Peters (D-MI) said House Speaker Mike Johnson's (R-LA) reluctance thus far to promise an ACA credits vote is problematic. NBC reported that the Speaker will not make any promises about holding a floor vote on extending ACA subsidies in the House.

In the Senate, a vote on the ACA credits could be promised, but an extension cannot be guaranteed. Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) was quoted as saying, "I've made this very clear to them, I can't guarantee them an outcome. I can guarantee them a process, and they can litigate the issue, get the vote on the floor. And presumably they have some way of getting a vote in the House at some point. But I can't speak for the House, and obviously I can't guarantee an outcome here. And they know that."

While sequencing and packaging of legislative elements has always been an issue with the shutdown, the key ingredients of a potential deal to end it have this week been understood to include:

• a vote on the enhanced ACA credits, or, perhaps, the promise of a vote by a date certain
• a new, longer CR until late 2025 or early 2026
• passage of the Military Construction-Veterans Affairs, Agriculture (which includes the Food and Drug Administration), and Legislative Branch minibus appropriations package.

Politico reported November 6 that Republicans additionally "are willing to discuss rehiring federal workers who have been laid off during the shutdown as part of a deal to end it." The Wall Street Journal reported November 6, "How ACA subsidies, a central concern of Democrats, would figure into the revised approach also remained in flux, and some Democrats warned they wouldn't be satisfied by a pledge of future action."

Leader Thune is expected to call a vote after the Senate convenes at noon today (November 7) on at least two of the pieces in the shutdown landscape, a CR likely into January and the three-bill minibus. Democrats, with the wind at their backs following wins in gubernatorial and other state races November 4, are not expected to provide the votes to fund the government under this scenario. Punchbowl News reported that during a caucus meeting Thursday, "Democrats came to the consensus that they should continue to hold out for a better deal in the wake of Tuesday's election victories. And they're skeptical of advancing any funding bill until a deal is finalized." And so, the shutdown is likely to go into a sixth week.

Reconciliation — The shutdown has obscured the outlook for follow-on legislation on health and tax issues later this year, and there is an apparent split among Republicans on the favored approach. Senate Budget Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham (R-SC) is advocating for a second reconciliation bill to focus on health care issues and "reportedly told the president that passing the party's legislation through budget reconciliation is a better alternative in the coming months" than ending the filibuster, the Washington Times reported. (The President has advocated eliminating the filibuster requiring 60 Senate votes for most bills.)

"The Big, Beautiful Bill went through reconciliation. It [included] the largest tax cuts, largest spending cuts, replenished the military and [provided] money for border. I think it's a tool that can be used to put points on the board," Senator Graham said.

"I want us to look at what a reconciliation package, a new one, would look like," Senator Graham said in Politico. "We could do some things on health care. We can do some things on policy, taxes and spending."

However, Bloomberg reported that Senate Finance Committee Chairman Mike Crapo (R-ID) said "he's not yet on board yet with a new fast-track reconciliation bill [and] is seeking [a] bipartisan health care plan."

Trade — The Supreme Court began consideration of the President's authority to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) on November 5. Small businesses and states are challenging whether IEEPA, which hasn't been used to impose tariffs prior to this year (according to CRS), authorizes the President to impose tariffs among the economic measures that can be used following a declaration of national emergency. The Court is considering the issues of whether tariffs are akin to taxes, which some justices asserted is the case, and if Congress intended to hand the executive branch authority for such revenue-raising actions. "It is impossible to predict how a divided bench may ultimately rule in the landmark case," the New York Times observed.

A WCEY Alert, "Supreme Court hears challenges to IEEPA tariffs," is available here.

Health care — The administration on Thursday announced Most Favored Nations deals with drugmakers Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to reduce the cost of GLP-1 weight-loss medications (such as Wegovy and Zepbound) and expand access to Medicare beneficiaries. Under the agreements, cash-paying consumers will have access to injectables at approximately $350/month, and oral forms (once approved) at as low as $149/month. In addition, the companies agreed to lower the price Medicare pays for patients with diabetes to $245/month and to use those savings to help pay for Medicare coverage of the drugs for weight loss. GLP-1 drugs have exploded in demand but remain expensive, often priced at more than $1,000/month, and insurance coverage for weight loss has been variable. As part of the deal, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk also committed to make their products available to Medicaid at MFN prices, to sell their primary care drugs at discounted costs on TrumpRx, and to launch all new products at MFN prices across payer markets.

Elections — Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME), who represents a competitive district in northern Maine, announced November 5 that he will not seek re-election. "After much deliberation, I've decided not to seek reelection in 2026," he posted on social media. "I'm confident that were I to run again, I would win. But recent events have made me reconsider whether the good I can do in Congress still outweighs the cost to my family." The WSJ reported that President Trump won the district by nearly 10 percentage points, but "The news was a surprise given that Golden appeared to be gearing up for a tough re-election campaign." Separately, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) also announced she would not run for re-election in what is a reliably Democratic district in San Francisco.