There has been a focus in recent weeks on prospects for a third Republican-only budget reconciliation bill, to follow last year's "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBBA/OB3) and the Secure America Act (S. 2) Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) bill, and how President Trump's calling for such a bill to deliver higher defense funding has roiled the appropriations process because Democrats want a commensurate increase in non-defense funding. But there are other deadlines facing Congress — in the near term and farther out — including the need for highway bill and farm bill extensions after September 30.

Politico reported June 19 that Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman John Boozman (R-AR) is set to release a five-year farm bill as soon as Tuesday, June 23, likely touching off partisan disputes over nutrition plans on the heels of the OB3 bill's changes to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which include stricter eligibility based on work requirements and immigration status and shifting a greater share of costs to states. Democrats are insisting on a delay in implementing the changes as a condition for supporting the farm bill. Boozman is planning to omit some controversial Republican priorities in a bid to build bipartisan support for the measure ahead of a potential July markup.

Punchbowl News reported on June 16, "There's little time this year for Congress to enact a farm bill, though Boozman releasing the text will be an important step forward. If lawmakers can negotiate a compromise bill in the fall, the farm bill will be a prime candidate for lame-duck action." The House passed its version of the farm bill April 30. The Senate's 60-vote threshold for most legislation outside of reconciliation puts a greater onus on bipartisan cooperation in the 53-47 Republican-led chamber (whereas the House can act by simple majority).

Given the political pressures ahead of the midterm elections, a continuing resolution (CR) is expected to be required to extend government funding beyond September 30. Some reports have questioned Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer's (D-NY) willingness to provide his party's votes even for that. Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) was asked last Tuesday whether a CR hampers the Senate's ability to act on other priorities like the farm bill, and he went on to detail the latest chapter in the years-long partisan tension between Republicans favoring defense spending and Democrats prioritizing non-defense funding. That tension is only exacerbated by the President's call for reconciliation to provide war funding.

Senate Environment and Public Works Committee Chair Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) was cited as saying Congress may need to rely on a short-term highway bill extension, though she doesn't want it to last the duration of the next fiscal year. The House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee May 22 "approved H.R. 8870, the BUILD America 250 [Act] — a bipartisan, five-year surface transportation reauthorization bill that invests in America's roads, bridges, transit, rail transportation, and highway and motor carrier safety programs." Electric Vehicle (EV) fees are likely to remain a controversial topic.

Social Security — On the longer-term horizon is action on Social Security. The Trustees of the Social Security and Medicare trust funds report released June 9 that found the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund will be able to pay 100% of total scheduled benefits only until the fourth quarter of 2032, one quarter earlier than projected last year.

A June 15 Hill Newspaper story, "Social Security's looming insolvency sparks alarm in Congress," said the Trustees' report has "lit a fire under lawmakers in both parties to call for reforms such as raising the cap on payroll taxes, 'means testing' beneficiaries, raising the retirement age, and creating personal accounts to invest in the stock markets." President George W. Bush proposed Social Security personal accounts as part of a larger package of reforms to the program in 2005, but the effort fizzled amid congressional resistance and concerns about tying the program's guaranteed benefits to the stock market.

Democrats are still wary of introducing any disruption into the retirement system. For instance, during the June 9 House Ways and Means Committee hearing on cryptocurrency, Ranking Member Richard Neal (D-MA) called for "being mindful [that] exposure to anything that might be disruptive has to be done with the greatest of care," citing the Committee's work on retirement savings issues and past fiscal crises.

Some Republicans are looking just beyond the elections for action on the issue. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) said in a June 9 radio interview that Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security "have to be adjusted and fixed," and that, "We have a plan to do that next year."

A story in the June 18 Wall Street Journal, "Social Security's Looming Problem is Already Here," said, "The 33 senators elected to full terms in November will have the unpleasant distinction of being the first U.S. politicians who might have to deal with automatic Social Security benefit cuts while in office. Actuaries now peg the fourth quarter of 2032 as the date when the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund will run dry, reducing checks by more than a fifth."

On Wednesday, June 24 (3 p.m.), the Senate Finance Committee is holding a hearing on, "The Future of Social Security." Witnesses include Shai Akabas from the Bipartisan Policy Center and Elizabeth Milito of the NFIB Small Business Legal Center.

Reconciliation — There will still be attention on a third GOP-only bill as House members return to session. Only the Senate was in session last week. House Republican leaders and committee chairs who have discussed the potential for another budget reconciliation bill didn't make any reported progress with members gone. Press reports suggest that progress must be made in the two weeks before the July 4 break if a bill is to be completed before the August recess. Politico Inside Congress said a high-level reconciliation meeting is tentatively planned for Wednesday (June 24). Revenue offsets, which thus far have focused on integrity provisions for federal social safety net programs, remain controversial.

Even advocates of the measure admit it will be difficult to get through Congress. Asked on Fox Business News about the House agenda prior to the August recess, Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) cited housing legislation, and said, "We're also working towards Reconciliation 3.0. I get it's hard. You know, you wake up every day with the two-seat majority. You don't have to tell me how hard things are. We came here to do hard things, to do important things. We're focused on fraud in that reconciliation bill … "

President Trump is scheduled to meet with Senate Republicans at the Capitol on Wednesday (June 24) amid skepticism from leaders over prospects for a reconciliation bill. Additionally, Senators left town last week amid some controversy over timing of the confirmation for the nation's next top intelligence official, entwined with the issue of expired Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) surveillance authority.

Housing — The Senate is back in session today (Monday, June 22). At 5:30 p.m., the chamber will move to a final vote on passage of the bipartisan housing affordability bill (H.R. 6644), the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, which is expected to pass overwhelmingly. Technically the vote is on a motion to concur in the House's recent amendment to the Senate amendment, with an amendment from Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott (R-SC) and Ranking Member Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) that makes a number of changes to the House's latest version of the bill that were agreed to by House leaders. The House is expected to take up and clear the bill for the president's signature without changes later this week under suspension of the rules, an expedited process that requires a two-thirds supermajority for passage — a threshold the housing bill has easily surmounted each time the House has considered it.

Instead of spending large amounts on housing construction, the bill broadly relies mostly on expanding programs and streamlining regulations, taking the approach of lowering regulatory barriers, expanding financing access and encouraging local housing production. The bill includes a framework restricting purchases of single-family homes by "large institutional investors" that own more than 350 homes, with exceptions for certain categories of transactions such as new construction, significant rehabilitation, certain homeownership programs, foreclosure-related transactions and intra-investor transfers. Language requiring large investors in build-to-rent housing to divest their holdings after seven years was removed in an earlier House-passed version, which the Senate amendment preserves. The bill also includes nine of the 11 community banking deregulatory provisions that House Republicans have pushed for.

Schedule — On Thursday, June 25 (10 a.m.), the Senate Finance Committee is holding a hearing on United States International Trade Commission (USITC) nominations.

The House returns to session tomorrow (Tuesday, June 23), with votes on suspension bills under the jurisdiction of the Small Business Committee. The House also may vote on the Energy and Water Development appropriations bill.

On Thursday, June 25 (10 a.m.), the House Ways and Means Work & Welfare Subcommittee is holding a hearing on "The Maternal, Infant, and Early Childhood Home Visiting (MIECHV) Program: Early Support, Lifelong Impact."

EY Podcast — Episode 25 of DC Dynamics examines the Trump administration's tax deregulatory agenda, focusing on how Treasury and the IRS are using regulatory authority to simplify or roll back complex tax rules rather than pursuing new legislation.