President Trump on June 24 upended plans for a signing ceremony in the Capitol for bipartisan housing affordability legislation (H.R. 6644), the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, saying shortly before the event that he would not sign the bill until Congress passes the SAVE America Act voter ID bill. "Today's Housing News Conference and Signing is hereby cancelled until such time as we pass the desperately needed SAVE AMERICA ACT, which I consider to be a National Emergency," the President said in a social media post.

The President did not threaten to veto the housing bill, which passed with wide bipartisan margins in both chambers, and it will become law in 10 days whether he signs it or not once it is sent to him by Congress. Under the Constitution, once both the House and Senate pass a bill, it must be presented to the President, who has 10 days (not counting Sundays) to sign it, veto it or do nothing, in which case it becomes law. Pro-forma sessions may be scheduled during the July 4th recess to prevent a "pocket veto," which occurs when a president is unable to reject and return the bill to an adjourned Congress within the 10-day period and it does not become law.

President Trump in May advocated for attaching the voter ID measure to the housing bill, and subsequently, on June 10, called for the voter ID bill to be addressed in a third budget reconciliation package focused on defense funding.

The housing bill's mostly supply-side approach relies on expanding programs and streamlining regulations; easing regulatory barriers such as environmental reviews; expanding access to mortgage financing; and encouraging local housing production. An editorial in the June 25 Washington Post said lawmakers and some White House staff were caught by surprise as the President "upended a carefully negotiated compromise that, while modest, contains worthy reforms to encourage home construction."

House leaders subsequently shelved plans to consider spending bills on the floor this week, which included a vote on the Energy and Water Development appropriations bill, as conservatives led by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) refused to vote for procedural rules allowing the floor to consider bills, saying the House should focus on meeting the President's demand (even though the House has already passed the SAVE America Act and sent it to the Senate). This dynamic could also affect next week's House agenda.

Reconciliation — Some House Republicans have been wary of voting on integrity provisions for federal programs that are envisioned as offsets for a 3.0 bill, and there is a noted enthusiasm gap between the House and Senate, where Republicans have been cool to plans for another bill and may want to avoid a pre-election "vote-a-rama" that could be wide-ranging for a broad bill.

The onus for jump-starting the process for another reconciliation bill is widely seen as falling on Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), who visited the White House June 25 and earlier confirmed his intention to include the voter ID measure in a GOP-only bill, saying it is "the only path, I think, to get that done." Bloomberg reported House Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington (R-TX) as saying a new budget resolution to unlock the reconciliation process could be considered next week. The story cited Arrington as saying Republicans have been wrestling with offsets to pay for the defense-focused reconciliation package, which could also include incentives for states to implement voter identification requirements, "all paid for by measures he said were aimed at combating fraud."

Conservatives have expressed their commitment to having a third reconciliation bill fully paid for. A June 24 Politico story, "House Republicans no closer to a deal on 'Reconciliation 3.0'," said of a Wednesday reconciliation meeting planned before the president's announcement, "Rep. Chip Roy of Texas, a key Budget Committee Republican, told reporters as he left the meeting that he would vote against any budget blueprint that is not fully paid for in current savings 'dollar for dollar' and 'year for year.' "

The Senate departed following the canceled bill signing and is not due to return until July 13. In a Punchbowl News report this morning, "Thune: Reconciliation is last-ditch option," Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) said a 3.0 bill is a "last resort," the challenge is how to pay for it, "And that's mostly going to be under the Finance Committee's jurisdiction, which gets really sticky and thorny."

Social Security - The June 24 Senate Finance Social Security, Pensions, and Family Policy Subcommittee hearing on "The Future of Social Security" included discussion of proposals to increase the amount of wage income subject to Social Security taxes above the current $184,500, which some say would adversely affect small businesses. The program's trustees now estimate 100% of scheduled benefits can be paid only until Q4 of 2032, which is earlier than last year's projection, threatening benefit cuts of up to 22% and rekindling discussions about how to sustain the program.

Subcommittee Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-IA), who is Senate President Pro Tempore and was elected to the Senate in 1980, recalled the Social Security commission from his first term, which proposed recommendations that later became law and have sustained the program for the past 43 years. (The Commission was in the news because it was headed by Alan Greenspan, who passed away this week.) Chairman Grassley said the problem is one of demographics and the solution can't be to only increase taxes on higher-income individuals, as Democrats perennially turn to, nor to simply address waste, fraud and abuse, which is Republicans' favored approach.

The Chairman said, as in the 1980s, Republicans and Democrats will need to sit down together to consider a wide range of reform options, and, to foster bipartisan discussions, it would be helpful to agree on principles that include no benefit reductions for those in or near retirement.

Ahead of the hearing, full Committee member Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Senator Bernie Moreno (R-OH) published a guest essay in the New York Times proposing to lift the $184,500 cap, which could raise $3 trillion over 10 years. Subcommittee Ranking Member Bernie Sanders (I-VT) said it is not fair to cut benefits or raise the retirement age and there is growing support for raising the cap, as evidenced by the bipartisan proposal. He sponsors the Social Security Expansion Act (S. 770), which would subject all income above $250,000 — including income from capital gains and dividends — to the Social Security payroll tax.

Witnesses were:

• Shai Akabas of the Bipartisan Policy Center, who said that because Americans are living longer and drawing on the program for more years than intended, there may need to be a bridge proposal — like new borrowing authority or a general revenue transfer - paired with reforms, and that no reform package can rely solely on benefit cuts or revenue increases.
• NFIB's Elizabeth Milito said that in addition to high-income taxpayers, small businesses taxed as pass-through entities would be affected by an increase in the income threshold.
• Nancy Altman of Social Security Works said the level of Social Security benefits is already low and cutting benefits will deepen the retirement crisis and hurt the economy.

Chairman Grassley focused on the effects of lifting the payroll tax cap on small businesses. Ranking Member Sanders asked whether it's fair for the wealthy to pay the same amount into the program as the average American. Full Committee Ranking Member Ron Wyden (D-OR) said the issue is one of fairness and said the wealthy can take loans against their income and not pay taxes, alluding to the "buy, borrow, die" tax strategy that he has criticized.

Elections — A main storyline in the June 23 primary elections was the victory by more progressive challengers in New York districts — backed by New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani — over two House incumbents — Reps. Dan Goldman (D-NY) and Adriano Espaillat (D-NY) — and for the open seat being vacated by Rep. Nydia Velázquez (D-NY). There are moderate v. progressive dynamics in a number of races this year, including the upcoming August Senate primaries for open seats in Michigan and Minnesota.

Hearings — The House Ways and Means Committee has scheduled a hearing for Tuesday, June 30 (10 a.m.) on tax policy in the sports industry.

The staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation has prepared a pamphlet describing "Present Law Relating to Selected Sports Industry Tax Issues."