The outlook for Congress has of course been scrambled, and overshadowed, by the sudden passing of Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC), a foreign policy stalwart who, as Senate Budget Committee chairman, was an advocate for an additional reconciliation bill this year. Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI), who had deficit concerns ahead of the last reconciliation measure, the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBBA/OB3), is likely set to take over the chairmanship. Senator Graham began his Senate career in 2003, after serving in the House, and had Social Security reform as an early focus. Under South Carolina state law, an interim replacement senator can be named by the Republican governor and the process for selecting a candidate through the primary process could be completed by the end of August.

As a practical matter, Republicans will be without two votes in the Senate, with the passing of Senator Graham and hospitalization of Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY). "That complicates every task on the floor for the party, from confirmations to legislation," Semafor noted in a report this morning. Should a House Republican be appointed to the seat, it would shrink the party's already narrow margin in the other chamber, something leaders may be looking to avoid.

The House is back today (Monday, July 13) with only eight scheduled legislative days until the start of the August recess and some members perhaps continuing to block floor action until Congress enacts the SAVE America Act voter ID bill. President Trump renewed his call for the bill as part of a Reconciliation 3.0 package, posting on social media July 7, "The SAVE AMERICA ACT, which everyone is asking for, paired with the full funding of our Great Department of War, can be passed, very quickly … "

It has long been thought that a third reconciliation bill could include affordability proposals and perhaps social safety net integrity provisions, but there are some doubts about a sufficient focus and GOP unanimity for a package. "There was a lot of pressure and political support behind trying to get the first bill done and that took us eight months to do," Rep. Greg Steube (R-FL), a Ways and Means Committee member, said in Politico Inside Congress July 10. "The timing of another one is challenging, and these days we can't even pass a rule." Bloomberg reported July 9 that House Budget Committee Republicans held a call on Wednesday to discuss a potential reconciliation bill. Another meeting is planned for today, Politico reported.

President Trump called for a defense funding reconciliation bill that also includes voter ID legislation more forcefully beginning on June 10. In the weeks preceding the July Fourth recess, Conservatives in the House led by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) refused to vote for procedural rules allowing floor consideration of bills in protest of congressional inaction on the voter ID bill (even though the House has already passed the SAVE America Act and sent it to the Senate).

Intraparty tensions among Republicans have simmered since the spring, due to primary endorsements (and resulting losses among incumbents) and other issues. "GOP leaders are increasingly concerned that members will lose motivation to show up, or may break with the party if they do, potentially stalling or killing some bills, according to lawmakers and aides," said a story in the Wall Street Journal, "'Zombie Congress' Imperils GOP Plans," on July 6. "While the Senate has been the main focus of GOP cracks, the House is also facing an uncertain summer and fall, with attendance issues and a renewed sense of independence among retiring, defeated or angry members threatening to upend the Republican agenda."

With only two legislative weeks for the House before the August recess — the Senate is planning to stay for a third week before the break — Congress faces a government funding deadline on September 30, which is also the deadline to extend the farm bill and the highway bill. There is often a continuing resolution (CR) from September 30 until later in the year during a midterm election year, and this year's regular appropriations process has been bogged down by the President's call for increased defense funding without a commensurate increase in nondefense spending.

The WSJ story noted that "Democrats have played hardball on spending bills this Congress, and the recent anti-Washington insurgency in their own ranks could further complicate any legislative progress," referring to moderate versus progressive dynamics in several races this year, including some in which progressive challengers are publicly disavowing the current Democratic leadership.

There has long been a tension between some Republicans feeling they need to deliver another reconciliation bill for voters and those who don't want to vote for social safety net revenue offsets. Now there is the added complication of members insisting on the voter ID measure that is unlikely to pass the Senate, as some Republicans say the party needs to deliver another reconciliation bill. A story in the July 4 Washington Post, "Republicans' agenda in Congress stalls with their majorities in peril," said, "Trump's aggressive advocacy for the bill has riled up the conservative base, making it harder for Republicans to enact their other priorities … " The story additionally said, "Other Republicans warned that futilely pushing legislation that cannot pass will not help them in November."

Trade — There still remains the question of, beyond reconciliation, how bipartisan tax, trade and health priorities could be addressed this year. A Punchbowl News story from last night, "AGOA's year-end deadline fast approaches," noted that the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), extended through 2026 in an earlier appropriations bill, sets up a year-end deadline for the programs that could drive a broader bipartisan package that could include tax items. "But what type of legislative vehicle could carry a reauthorization of the African Growth and Opportunity Act, along with a key trade program for Haiti, is still a question mark," the story said.

Schedule — The House is back in today (July 13) with votes at 6:30 p.m. on suspension bills under the jurisdiction of the Oversight and Government Reform Committee, Homeland Security Committee, and House Administration Committee. Later in the week are votes on suspension bills under the jurisdiction of the Veterans' Affairs Committee and the Financial Services Committee, one of which would make it harder for regulators to waive the requirement that a "crisis" merger between a big bank and a failing bank cannot control more than 10% of US deposits. There are also non-suspension votes planned on bills from the Financial Services Committee and the Sunshine Protection Act (H.R. 139) addressing daylight savings time.

The House Budget Committee may be aiming to finalize a budget resolution that paves the way for a reconciliation bill, according to press reports.

The Senate also returns to session today (July 13) with a vote on a judicial nomination at 5:30 p.m.

On Thursday, July 16, the Senate Finance Committee will hold a hearing on the nominations of:

• Francis Brooke to be Deputy Secretary of the Treasury
• Erin Browne to be Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs
• Sriprakash Kothari to be Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy
• George McMaster to be Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Financial Markets

On Thursday, July 16, the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee will hold a confirmation hearing on the nomination of Keith Sonderling to be Secretary of the U.S. Department of Labor.

Banking — This week features a pairing of two high-profile mandatory appearances, by newly confirmed Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh and Russell Vought, in his capacity as the acting director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). Warsh and Vought are testifying separately before both the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee.

For Warsh, it will be his first appearance before Congress since taking charge at the Fed on May 22, with questions swirling about whether the central bank will have to raise rates later this year. Warsh last week appointed five task forces to reassess the Fed's mission and focus, including a productivity task force featuring Silicon Valley investor Marc Andreesen and a communications group led by University of Washington professor Peter Fisher.

Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Vought, in his capacity as the CFPB director, has spent much of the last year laying off the Bureau's staff, rescinding its rules and withdrawing from lawsuits and enforcement cases. Democrats have clamored for his testimony under a provision of the Dodd-Frank Act that requires the CFPB director to appear before the banking committees annually. The administration has nominated a permanent CFPB director, Brian Johnson, who served as deputy director of the Bureau during the first Trump administration, but Johnson has not had his confirmation hearing yet.